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Macworld 08 wrap up

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Thinnovation I have successfully returned from another Macworld. I've lost count exactly haw many I've been too but I think it's around half a dozen. Interestingly, the first one I went to in Boston back in 1995 was by far the largest. But 2008 one was bigger than the last several.

Here's a summary of what I was up to and products that caught my eye:
Aperture: I started out a day before the show opened with attending a two day workshop on Apple's photo workflow software, Aperture. This was by far the highlight of the week for me. It's really a super piece of software and the instructors, both professional photographers, were stellar. I'll follow up on a seperate post later for details on what I learned.
Keynote: Bob and I tried to attend the Keynote about three years ago. We were foiled by being cast in an overflow room to watch on closed circuit TV. It sucked then. And yes, it sucked again. I got woken up by some Apple fan boys around 3:30am at my hotel so I figured I might as well get into line early since I was awake. I was in line by 5:30am and wasn't even close at getting into the actual Keynote. If you're ever interested in attending a Steve-note, make sure you're VIP, part of the glamorati or media because otherwise, you won't get in. Or get in line by 3-4am. Ridiculous.
iPhone supersession: I attended a conference session on iPhone tips. Yes, I don't have one yet. But I was curious on any power features I hadn't yet heard about. By far, the most questions from the audience were around syncing calendars and contacts--old school apps. But that's what it looks like people are using the most on their iPhones. There's not much out there to make syncing easy. Spanning Sync was mentioned as one app for people wanting to sync with their Google calendars. VisualHub was mentioned as a great video conversion utility. Videobox for downloading YouTube. You can get to all the slides from the session here. Oh, and my iPhone has just shipped. :-)
MacBook Air: I had a chance to check out the big announcement at the show up close and in person. The machine really is as thin as it looks. It feels quite sturdy and LED display is very bright and easy to read. The multi-touch (pinch, swipe, zoom, etc.) is really more of a play thing than usable at all. But it's a clearly a foreshadow of things to come in terms of multi-touch trackpads on Apple laptops. The keyboard is excellent and backlit. A few things I didn't like about the machine: the mouse button is too narrow, processor is kind of pokey in comparison to my MacBook Pro 2.4Ghz and the hard drive small for the large media collections most people have today. This is definitely not a "pro" level machine. But I think it would make a great second machine if say you have an iMac or tower at home. Last note, I think the industrial design of the machine (curves very much like the old clamshell iBooks) is a signal of things to come for the next rev of the MacBook Pro line.
Apple TV 2.0: I saw a demo of an HD movie streaming from Apple TV to a plasma display and it was gorgeous. Alas, my prediction that the next rev of Apple TV would include a Blu-ray drive didn't come true. Yes, it would have increased the cost of the device. But I think it would have been more attractive to consumers. Pretty much no one has Blu-ray players yet. Since no one rents movies online yet, easing people into that world with the safety net of a high definition DVD player would have been real attractive to a lot of people (I would think). But apparently, Stevo doesn't think Blu-ray will ever go anywhere. Blu-ray probably won't ever get as big as DVD, but it will be a sizable market nevertheless. Steve said Apple didn't get version 1.0 right. I don't think they got v2.0 right yet either minus Blu-ray and opening the device up to developers to extend. But they made a step in the right direction. If I were a power TiVo user, I'd probably pass on Apple TV. But since I don't get cable, it's a perfect device for me. Got mine on order. :-)
Garmin: Garmin had a big booth at the show. What caught my eye was some new cycle computers they were about to release. The Edge 705 tracks your heart rate, distance cycled and maps out where you've been. You can also program in directions on where you want to go. It works equally well in the city or in the outback for mt. biking. You can use Garmin Connect to upload your work outs and share them with friends or you can use Garmin Training Center client for your PC/Mac. They also have some new beta software to help you map out your routes and upload them to your device. I was pretty impressed with their Mac support. The cool thing about the 605/705 is that you could use them just as easily for hiking or driving. So, it's really a multipurpose device. There's a good chance I'll pick up one of these later in the year.
Lensbabies: I've known about Lensbabies for quite awhile but never saw one up close. They allow you to take pretty cool off focus photos with your 35mm camera. The 3G model looks like the best as it allows you to lock the lens once you get your shot set up. But it costs $350 bucks. Way too much for something you can do in Photoshop.
Time Capsule: Time Capsule is Apple's new wireless router with built-in 500GB or 1TB drive. It's a perfect companion for 10.5's Time Machine. I'll definitely be picking one up later in the year. This didn't get much attention at the show. But it's a very elegant solution for wirelessly backing up your machine.
Ear buds: There were several high end ear bug manufacturers at the show. Both Ultimate Ears and Shure build ear buds for professional musicians. I tried products from each and their mid range products (~$200) were pretty nice. Although, not good enough to get me to plunk down the cost of an entire iPod.
OmniFocus: If you follow David Allen's GTD system, then you should buy OmniFocus. It's the latest app from Seattle's Omni Group. I picked a discounted copy at the show.
Nikon: Nikon had a big booth at the show as did Canon. I got to play around with the D300. It's noticeably lighter than the D200 to me. The preview screen is gorgeous and has more features than I could probably ever use. I'll be picking on up by the end of the year. But first I'll be picking up some flash devices to start shooting with additional lighting so I can do stuff like this.
Canon: I've heard a lot of good things about the new G9. I've been casually looking around for a new compact camera. The G9 shoots RAW and it's camera controls are very intuitive and nicely integrated with the 3" display--far nicer than any point and shoot I've ever seen. The deal breaker for me will likely be it can't go wider than 35mm. I'm a wide angle freak so I'll keep looking.
HP Printers: The instructors in my class were raving about the HP B9180 large format photo printer. Apparently you can get them for around $500 bucks. The output is great. Although, the printer is pretty bulky being a large format device. I've been thinking about getting back into home printing. The HP folks said that the printer always stays perfectly accurate. So, if you make a print today and next year, they will look identical. Most importantly, inks don't dry out so the constant buying of new ink cartridges (like in the old Epson inkjet world) shouldn't be a problem any longer. I may get one if I find myself doing a lot of printing this year. Getting quality 11 x 14s from Ivey costs about $70 bucks per print. So, it would absolutely save me money in the long run. We'll see.
iBank: A small software house, IGG Software, will shortly be releasing a new version (3.0) of their home banking product, iBank. It's basically a nice version of Quicken. They require a bit too much work in categorization of all your transactions. Why can't someone just do all that for me automatically? In any event, Quicken sucks. So, I may give it a try when it ships later in February.
Blizzard: I asked the Blizzard rep when the new version of Starcraft was going to be released. "We don't have a ship date yet." That's the one thing that cracks me up about that company. It's the only one I know who's motto is, "we'll ship when we're done--no sooner, no later." I remember asking the same question about Diablo II at a previous Macworld. And that was their exact same answer! At least they're consistent. I actually think it's kind of cool.
Bags: There were lots of bag manufacturers at the show. I liked stuff from XtremeMac, Booq and Crumpler. For photo bags, Crumpler had the best photo bag I've seen yet. Basically you take any of their standard sized messenger bags and buy a second photo back that fits in it (looks like this). That way, when you're not lugging your photo equipment around, you have a first class messenger bag. This is a pretty hip solution.

Heading to Macworld

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It's been three years since I last when down to Macworld. So, I thought it would be good to visit a year after the iPhone launch to see how the Mac marketplace has changed. I'll also be taking a two day Aperture workshop. Adding photography to the trip will make it double the usual fun.

Here are my predictions for new Apple announcements:
  • Sub notebook (super thin, external DVD drive, flash drive, optional dock)
  • New displays, thinner, cheaper with included iSight camera
  • AppleTV 2.0 with included BlueRay DVD drive
  • Minor iPhone hardware upgrade--16GB model still at $399 price point. iPhone 2.0 (3G + GPS) will be announced at the Apple Developers Conference in June.
  • iPhone software rev to include new Google Maps cell tower based my positioning update
  • iPhone SDK will be announced and a few partner companies will demo what they've built with a pre-release version. Will be made available in Februrary. Probably will require becoming and ADC member to get the SDK.
  • Processor upgrade to existing MacBook Pros to latest Intel Penryn processors
  • Leopard update (10.5.2) with stability updates plus fixing customer gripes (like turning off stacks in the dock)
  • Aperture 2.0 will be released either at Macworld or PMA (the more likely venue)
  • iTunes store will offer movie rentals. Most major studios will be on board. You'll have up to 30 days to watch your title. Though, once you start watching, you'll have 24 hours to finish the movie before it expires.
  • Airport Express will be upgraded to 802.11n.
Wonder if we're starting to see a tipping point for the resurgence of the Mac. I know every time I visit an Apple Store, it's packed solid.
Mac users quadruple on Princeton campus: "DailyPrincetonian.com reports that just 10 percent of Princeton students had Macs in the 2003-2004 school year, but that Mac-toting students since then have rocketed up to a whopping 60 percent this year."

(Via MacNN | The Macintosh News Network.)

Leopard RTM

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If Leopard doesn't release to manufacturing (RTM) this week, there's no way Apple will make a October release date. They'll need about three weeks to push product into the channel. Move the release into November, and you're cutting into the holiday buying season. I would not like to be the PM responsible for giving Jobs the daily status updates that are likely required right now.

Will Steve "jump the shark?"

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For those that aren't familiar with the term "jump the shark," click here. For everyone else, read on.

I have to admit, one of my fears as a Mac guy is Apple's success getting to a point where it collectively starts to believe its own hype. Boy, back in the late 90's I couldn't even imagine worrying about such a thing. But I'm starting to see signs that concern me.

For example, the iPod. When iPod v1.0 came out, I remember walking around town with my white ear buds. Pretty much no one had them. Seeing a pair if white ear cords then was kind of like a secret ID that a fellow progressive, passionate person about computing was passing by. Now, you can't walk down a block without seeing half a dozen people listening to the "soundtrack of their life." The iPod has become the next Walkman. Now it's boring and ubiquitous. The latest iPod offerings from Apple reenforce this. You could argue the iPod Touch is awesome. What would be awesome is a Touch with 160GB hard drive. What would be awesome is a mail app, Google maps app, Stocks, Weather, Notes and Camera. Why cripple the device? Could it be that it would cut into iPhone sales perhaps? Daring Fireball has an interesting take on WiFi here:
Clever bit of Jobs keynote jujitsu during the iPod Touch segment of the event: He does a whole big run-up to revealing that Safari is included, by emphasizing all the Wi-Fi networks that require a web page sign-in before letting you on. So the pitch is that you need Safari. It was a sleight of hand to draw attention away from the question of what do you do when there are no available Wi-Fi networks at all? What a browser needs is a network, but Jobs pitched it as the network needing the browser.

It’s silly if you think about it: if it weren’t for Safari, the only thing you’d be able to do on the iPod Touch with Wi-Fi is watch YouTube and buy songs from iTunes. Plus, presenting the inclusion of Safari as a sort of “boy, isn’t it cool that we did this” feature draws attention away from the exclusion of Mail. There’s been a lot less bitching about the Touch not including Mail than I expected — I think that’s at least partly attributable to the way Jobs presented the inclusion of Safari.

For those that watched Steve's recent keynote for the latest iPod launch, you would have been treated to a smarmy jab at NBC. While I'm no lover of the media conglomerates, from everything I've read, NBC isn't necessarily the bad guy here. It's more about two mega corps disagreeing about monetization. Wonder if either asked the question, what's best for customers?

What triggered this blog post was a great post from Wil Shipley, the developer of Delicious Monster. He's a very outspoken chap--sometimes annoyingly so. Though, this post confirms some of my recent concerns about Apple jumping the shark. Wil writes:
But recently, well... the generous view would be that Apple's screwing up, and the non-generous view would be that they are just plain getting greedy.
...why is the iPhone locked to a single carrier, so I can't travel internationally with it? There's really only one viable reason: Apple wanted a share of the carrier's profits, which meant giving AT&T an exclusive deal. Which meant, we get screwed so Apple can make more money. It's that simple.
And the iPhone is a closed system, like the iPods before it, so third parties can only develop software for it if they are EXTREMELY close to Apple. This is an incredibly frightening trend. As Apple gets more and more of its revenue from non-Mac devices, they are also getting more and more of their revenue from devices that simply exclude third parties.
I know Steve Jobs; he's actually amazingly like my old business partner Mike Matas. They both love closed systems, for a simple reason -- they both know they're smarter than anyone else on the planet, and they don't need anyone else mucking up their systems.
He goes on to make many more interesting points including opening up DRM (which I recently posted about too).

I love Google's "don't be evil" motto. It just hits the nail on the head in terms of orienting a huge organization to stay true to early more humble ideals. What I especially like about it, the motto comes not from Page or Brin, but from the trenches--an early Google software developer by the name of Paul Buchheit (developer of Gmail). It's even more meaningful coming from the rank-and-file IMO. I think Apple could use a good dose of Don't be Evil.

Steve, please don't jump the shark!
If Apple really wants to crank up the number of movers from PC to Mac, all they need to do is provide a utility to import PC users' Outlook PST files. Doing this will bag TONS of Outlook users such as a recent switcher, Mark Cuban:
...there isnt a version of Outlook for the Mac. As someone who has more than 10 years and gigabytes worth of emails in multiple outlook files, the concept of exporting and importing wont fly. So i am keeping my PC Desktop purely to download my emails into Outlook so I have a master database.
I know other people that keep their PC's around just to download email in Outlook and use their Mac for everything else. That's just screwy. Apple should help out here because Microsoft doesn't have much incentive to do so in Mac Office.

NBC implications for Apple

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I've been watching the Apple vs. NBC war of words mostly with amusement. "Stick it to those mega corps that don't get the new digital world!" I cheered when Apple issued a press release effectively flipping-off NBC for pushing them around on pricing. But now reality is syncing in a bit for me.

I read an article on Last 100 today surveying a bunch of sites selling video downloads. One common element is nearly all offer video downloads using Microsoft's Media DRM. While Apple may think it's playing hard ball with NBC, the NBC online video download business is so tiny compared with the rest of their revenue channels that ignoring Apple is not really dangerous for NBC at all. Switching costs are super cheap given we're still in Internet video download infancy. And with other players getting into the market like Sony and Amazon, NBC certainly has other mega corp options. So, why should Apple care? They control most of the devices that can play video. Well, that's a temporary lead and far from gauranteed.

Here's one danger scenario. Jobs has stuck to keeping the Quicktime DRM closed. As new video services are spinning up, they all need DRM to sell major studios' content. Most video download services, I imagine, are DMR neutral--they could care less what they use--only that any DRM works for a majority of their customers. If Apple licensed their DRM, every one of these new video sites would offer FairPlay in addition to Windows Media. These new companies would want to make sure they have full coverage over a majority of their customer base, many of whom today own Apple iPods. Full coverage guarantees that all Apple hardware can play most any video content available and kicks in a virtuous cycle of Apple hardware spurs more content which spurs more Apple hardware. Given Apple's recent quarterly earnings, the sale of Macs are driving their latest revenue, not iPods. I would hate to see Apple hardware sales threatened by consumers getting the message that they can't watch their favorite video content on Apple computers.

Apple has got great word of mouth going right now. I can't tell you how many people I hear switching from PCs to Macs for two simple reasons, to: 1) avoid spyware and 2) avoid viruses. Beautiful industrial design and software are less of major reasons for switching based on my anecdotal observations. Just as quickly as the Apple over PC trend has started, Microsoft could fix their spyware and virus problems and own video downloads. If Windows isn't a pain to use any longer and it is better supported from a digital download perspective, then Apple is in trouble again. The only safe haven is if video goes the same direction as digital music, DRM free. I highly doubt it though. The studio's are a completely different beast than the labels. When it costs $200 million to produce movies like Spider-Man 3, studios aren't going to provide that content copy protection free. Jobs is playing a dangerous game with keeping DRM proprietary to Apple.

iPhone plan fine print

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I've been starting to research AT&T before I buy an iPhone. Here's some fun fine print:
  • Email/SMS: International messages not included. Charges for international messages sent from the U.S. are 20¢ for Text Messages and 50¢ for Picture/Video Messages. Additional charges for premium messages and content apply. Messages over 300 KBs billed an additional 50¢/message.
  • Attachements: Mobile E-mail attachments can not be sent, downloaded, read, or forwarded on the mobile device.
  • "Unlimited" data: Data Service sessions prohibited uses include, but are not limited to, using services; ...for any machine-to-machine applications (peer-to-peer, automatic data feeds, webcam posts or broadcasts, jpeg file transfers); ...for voice-over-ip; ...for uploading, downloading or streaming of video content (e.g. movies, tv), music or games; ...as substitute or backup for private lines or dedicated data connections; ...for any applications that tether the device (through use of, including without limitation, connection kits, other phone/pda-to-computer accessories, bluetooth® or any other wireless technology) to laptops, pcs, or other equipment for any purpose.
  • Wifi: To ensure that the Wi-Fi Service is not being used fraudulently, AT&T limits your usage of the Wi-Fi Service to 150 uses per month.
The wifi clause is the most surprising and reprehensible. I love Apple products. But I can't stand the telecom companies. This is going to make an iPhone purchase a tough decision.
Getting closer to a new laptop purchase!
LED MacBook Pro Update in June?: "ThinkSecret claims that Apple has indeed placed an order for 15.4-inch LED backlit displays targeting a June announcement at WWDC. According to the rumor site, Apple placed an order for over 100,000 15.4-inch LED displays in April for a delivery schedule in May. "

(Via MacRumors.)

Get a Mac

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Apple should update and re-release this old 1995 commercial (Quicktime).

What happens in the video is precisely what happened to a presenter that went after me in a recent presentation at work. I went first, connected my Mac to the projector, and it all just worked. I finished my preso and the next presenter went up with a Windows machine and had all sorts of problems getting it to work. Of course the audience (like in the video) tried to help. The Dickertator mentioned after the meeting that it was a prefect Apple commercial momment.

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